Positive developments in talks between the Tatmadaw and Arakan Army have drawn attention to their key weakness: civilian-military relations.

The numerous unknowns regarding the voluntariness of Rohingya refugee relocations to Bangladesh’s Bhasan Char reflects the need for access and assessments on the island.

On 28 November, the Japanese Special Envoy for National Reconciliation in Myanmar, Mr Yohei Sasakawa, visited conflict-affected communities in Rakhine State together with the Japanese Ambassador by arrangement of the Tatmadaw.

Increasingly frosty relations reflect Myanmar’s concerns regarding Beijing’s clout. The willingness of Myanmar to diversity its foreign relations should be reassuring to international agencies.

While last week’s apparent constructive exchange between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw is a positive development, observers should contain their optimism.

The National League for Democracy is set for another landslide win. Can the meagre gains made by ethnic parties stem the tides of disillusionment?

While humanitarian aid is not a target in western Myanmar’s conflict, the attack on a relief vessel last week reflects new security realities and the politicisation of aid in Myanmar.

Arbitrary arrest and deprivation of liberty is nothing new in western Myanmar’s conflict zones, where international agencies have a responsibility to monitor violations of international law.

The election cancellations fiasco has decayed the little trust the election commission has left and may intensify conflict dynamics in western Myanmar.